GT Progressive News: The viral thread quoted below is missing essential context and contains numerous errors. It does not reflect the latest evidence. #2019nCoV Here is a new thread with the facts:

Sunday, January 26, 2020

The viral thread quoted below is missing essential context and contains numerous errors. It does not reflect the latest evidence. #2019nCoV Here is a new thread with the facts:

The basic reproduction number (R0) is the average number of secondary infections generated by one infected person in a totally susceptible population #2019nCoV
— Ferris Jabr (@ferrisjabr) January 25, 2020

The claim that the new coronavirus has an R0 of 3.8 is based on this paper https://t.co/chhqlh1S7P

The authors of that paper emphasize the high degree of uncertainty and have already downgraded their estimate to an R0 of 2.5 https://t.co/SwMoQm58hz
— Ferris Jabr (@ferrisjabr) January 25, 2020

Moreover, R0 is not the only statistic that matters. Some diseases are extremely infectious but not very lethal; others are the inverse.

Infectiousness can change dramatically depending on the population in question and circumstances. #2019nCoV
— Ferris Jabr (@ferrisjabr) January 25, 2020

It's estimated, for example, that control measures reduced the R0 of SARS from ~2.9 to 0.4. (This might be the source of the erroneously cited "modest" 0.49 "viral attack rate" for SARS in the viral thread)

Reference: https://t.co/YoZZRZhTR0
— Ferris Jabr (@ferrisjabr) January 25, 2020

Following numerous critiques, the most inaccurate tweet in the original viral thread disappeared/was probably deleted without explanation or follow-up correction. For transparency and posterity, this is what it looked like.

The info in the pictured tweet is unequivocally wrong pic.twitter.com/MgWb6CnCPd
— Ferris Jabr (@ferrisjabr) January 25, 2020

I'd like to thank everyone who has been sharing my thread. You are helping to combat misinformation and alarmism. Some people think it is futile to try, but you are proving them wrong.

Critical thinking is a skill—a muscle. We have a collective responsibility to exercise it.
— Ferris Jabr (@ferrisjabr) January 25, 2020

https://t.co/3wKTJLCfVp
— Ferris Jabr (@ferrisjabr) January 26, 2020

This is a great resource: an interactive map of confirmed novel coronavirus infections and deaths around the world, frequently updated.

Created by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering, John Hopkins University. Last update: 10PM EST Jan 25https://t.co/uzj1ZR2DVW pic.twitter.com/TRyZ6tL0v7
— Ferris Jabr (@ferrisjabr) January 26, 2020